M&M Q4 Preview: Strong earnings growth likely but margin could fall at least 200bps

NEW DELHI: Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is expected to report a 17-40% increase in autonomous profit for the March quarter on a 25-30% increase in sales. Margins are expected to contract by at least 200 basis points year-over-year.

Emkay Global sees M&M’s standalone profit rise 17.5% year-on-year to Rs 1,178.10 crore from Rs 1,002 crore in the prior year quarter. It sees sales increase by 29.5% year-on-year to Rs 17,270.50 crore from Rs 13,338.20 crore. Ebitda margin is expected to compress 246 basis points year-on-year to 12.2 from 14.7% in the prior year quarter.

“Revenue is expected to grow strongly year-over-year due to higher volumes (13%) and higher realization (13%). Automotive segment realization may improve due to price increases and better mix i.e. lower share of 3W Agricultural equipment realization expected to improve due to price Ebitda margin may contract due to ‘a decline in gross margin,’ he said.

Kotak Institutional Equities estimates that M&M will record a 28.4% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 17,129.70 crore, driven by a 58% YoY increase in Automotive revenue and a 16% decline in YoY Tractor segment revenue.

In terms of volume, the brokerage firm forecasts a 44% increase in automotive segment revenue and a 22% decline in volumes for the quarter on a year-over-year basis.

“We estimate that the overall EBITDA margin will decline by 100 basis points QoQ, due to a lower segment mix partially offset by the improvement in the EBIT margin of the automotive segment due to the benefits of operating leverage and a richer model mix at 4QFY22,” Kotak said.

The brokerage saw its Adjusted Autonomous Net Profit increase by 29.4% to Rs 1,031.60 crore and its Ebitda margin drop to 10.9%.

YES Securities, meanwhile, sees Ebitda margin at 12.5%. This brokerage fixed PAT at Rs 1,399.80 crore, up 39.6%.

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